Syria: Frequently Asked Questions

Christopher Phillips: “The Syria conflict is both a civil war and a proxy war. It has legitimate domestic origins. The opposition are fighting the government for ideological reasons. The Kurds are fighting both sides for historical and ideological reasons, while Assad is fighting for survival. However, each side receives vital support from outside players who are using the Syrian conflict to fight a wider proxy war. Iran and Russia are supporting the government of Bashar al-Assad, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Western governments, led by the United States, have backed the opposition. The United States has also supported Kurdish forces. The fact that it is both a domestic civil war and an international proxy war played out by the United States, Russia, Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Iran is one of the reasons why this is such a complex conflict.” 

Christopher Phillips: “The Sunni-Shia Divide is a division within Islam based on different interpretations of the religion dating back to the 7th century. Some have suggested Syria is a religious war between Sunnis and Shias, but this is a simplification. Syria has many different religions and ethnicities. The Sunni Arabs are about 65% of the population, while the Shia Alawis are about 12% of the population. The reason people think it's a religious war is that Assad's government has been dominated by Alawis, which is resented by some among the Sunni Arabs who traditionally dominated before Assad's father took power in 1970. However, the reality of the war is more complex than simply Shia Alawis fighting for the government, and Sunnis fighting for the opposition. Assad receives support from many people who are not Shia Alawis, for example, Christians who are 10% of the population, Druze who are 3% and in fact many Sunnis, often the wealthier middle and upper classes. If you look at who backs the opposition, Sunni supporters tend to be poorer, so there is an economic component. There's also a strong ideological component, some Alawis, Christians and Druze have supported the opposition because they oppose Assad, irrespective of religion.” 

Christopher Phillips: “Syria's Kurds, who make up roughly 10% of the population, have long been discriminated against by Assad's government. However, because many didn't trust the opposition either, when the conflict broke out, Kurdish militia joined neither side. Pretty soon, one Kurdish group, the PYD, came to dominate and they declared the north eastern Kurdish parts of Syria self-ruling in 2013. However, they were soon attacked by ISIS, who also claimed that territory. When the PYD successfully fought back the United States started to sponsor them as an ally in the war against ISIS, providing them and their allies with weapons, training and air cover. As ISIS was pushed back, the PYD expanded into non-Kurdish areas and even though they claim to be democratic, some worry that they seek to take over. The future of the Kurds in Syria is unclear. Because the PYD is affiliated with the Turkish Kurdish militant group the PKK, Turkey sees them as terrorists. Turkey invaded Syria in 2016 and again in 2018 to limit the PYD's presence on its border. Assad also has said he wants to reconquer the Kurdish lands in the long run, although some wonder if you might negotiate instead. Neither Turkey nor Assad is likely to attack the Kurds as long as the US remains protecting them so much will depend on whether Washington decides to stay for the long haul.” 

Christopher Phillips: “In 2013, there was a huge chemical weapons attack in oppositionheld eastern Damascus, and fingers immediately pointed at Assad. Many expected Barack Obama, who had declared that chemical weapons usage would be a red line for him, to launch a military strike on Assad in response. Obama prepared a military attack but called it off and instead accepted a Russian plan for Assad to give up his chemical weapons peacefully without a shot being fired. Obama was criticised for this because it seemed he was giving Assad a green light to keep killing as long as chemical weapons weren't used. Syria was not a signatory to the treaty that forbade the use of chemical weapons in 2013 and so wasn't officially breaking international law. However, as part of the Russian deal that Obama agreed to, Syria did sign the chemical weapons treaty. This matters because in 2017, Assad used chemical weapons again against opposition areas in the northwest. The new US President, Donald Trump, responded immediately with a missile strike on Assad, saying he dared to do what Obama wouldn't. But the strike was small and largely ineffective. Because Assad had signed up to the treaty, he should have been punished at the UN, but his ally Russia blocked any attempts to hold into account. The use of chemical weapons seems to provoke public reaction in a way that conventional weapons don't. However, far more people have been killed by conventional weapons in this conflict.” 

Christopher Phillips: “The refugee crisis has seen a huge movement of people leaving their homes, often due to conflict. Over 5 million people have fled Syria since the conflict broke out, a quarter of the pre-war population and another 6 million are internally displaced. Actually, a very small proportion of Syria's refugees have come to Europe. The vast majority are heading to Syria's immediate neighbours. The massive influx of refugees into neighbouring Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan is placing huge strain on these countries, many of whom are quite poor and politically unstable. Turkey has received over 3 million refugees, Lebanon has received a million despite only having a population of 4 million, itself, meaning one in five people in Lebanon is now a Syrian refugee. This is likely to have a very long-term impact. Studies on refugees have shown that it takes refugees 10 years after the conflict has ended, before half of those that have fled return. So we should expect the majority of Syrians to stay in their host countries for some time. If you think of similar displacements in the past, notably the Palestinian crisis in 1948, that is something that still hasn't been resolved today, and Palestinians still live in refugee camps in Lebanon, Jordan, and until recently, Syria.” 

Christopher Phillips: “The Free Syrian Army, or FSA, are a collection of opposition militia fighting Assad's government. They originally formed locally, often to defend protesters, and some were defecting soldiers from Assad's army. Because of these local origins, they struggled to coordinate as an effective national body. They were called an army but were anything but in reality, a bit like the French resistance in the Second World War, they shared the brand of the FSA but were not a single coordinated entity. One difficulty for the FSA was maintaining ideological cohesion. Different fighters wanted different things after Assad was toppled. Some were secular, wanting the continuation of non-religious rule. Some were religious and wanted a balance and others were outright Islamists, though perhaps not as radical as ISIS or Al-Qaeda. The role of Islamists among the opposition was a problem when it came to attracting foreign backing because some foreign powers, like the United States were worried that weapons and money would fall into radical Islamists hands. The FSA still exists today, but they're far smaller. In opposition held areas, it's often the more radical elements that dominate, including Al-Qaeda. Sometimes they cooperate and fight Assad together, sometimes they fight each other. Unfortunately for the FSA, few foreign powers now believe they can win, and the US, Saudi Arabia and Turkey have cut back their support.”